Battle of the generals

Two weeks ago BBQ carried an article on Zimbabwe asking the question: Is this final curtain call? The article concluded that the renegotiation of the service contracts of Zimbabwe’s most senior and influential security officers might well challenge the future of the three year old shaky coalition between ZANU-PF and the two MDC formations agreed upon under the Global Political Agreement (GPA). Recent developments make this more relevant than ever.

Background

The terms of office for the Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Constantine Chiwenga and Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri expired at the end of January 2012. This is to be followed by those of the Prisons Services Commissioner, retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi; Air Force Commander Air Marshal Perence Shiri and Zimbabwe National Army Commander Lieutenant-General Philip Sibanda at the end of February 2012.

But, Police Commissioner Chihuri once famously told Police recruits, “Zimbabwe came through blood and the barrel of the gun and it can never be re-colonised through a simple pen, which costs as little as five cents." This prompted Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's accusation of the generals exceeding their mandates and meddling in political matters. He even blamed them of instituting a silent coup by running a parallel administration.

Root cause

This undue political interference and open propagation of ZANU-PF policy by the security chiefs, lies at the root of the two MDC formations’ insistence for the complete transformation and re-structuring of the security sector before elections can be allowed.

At the time, tension and uncertainty of what was going to happen was noticeable and received prominent coverage in the Zimbabwean media since late last year. It was known that President Mugabe favoured the re-appointment of his trusted security men while his MDC coalition partners were outspokenly opposed to the idea.

The Global Political Agreement (GPA) not only provides the roadmap for a political settlement but, according to the MDC, also specifies the procedures for the appointment of all senior government officials and oblige President Mugabe to consult with and get the approval of his MDC coalition partners.

They were adamant that they would not allow him this time ignore them again and would insist that he strictly follows the procedures as required by the GPA.

MDC-T’s deputy Minister of Justice, Obert Gutu, said that key appointment by President Mugabe without the consent or agreement of Prime Minister Tsvangirai, would be an attack on the constitution.

ZANU-PF’s response

President Mugabe’s official spokesperson and Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Information, George Charamba countered that,”... the defence forces are not subject to inter-party negotiations.” But is this just resorting to semantics, a play at the difference between “appointments” and “re-appointments.” ?

Writing in the state-run newspaper, The Herald’s Saturday edition, 4 February 2012, columnist Nathaniel Manheru, who is widely believed to be Charamba, wrote that Chihuri’s re-appointment was confirmed and concluded: “Surely the MDC formations should have known their customer; known what you can get out of the President and what you cannot.”

Although not unexpected, the opposition was nevertheless surprised when the announcement came that President Mugabe re-appointed Gen. Chihuri without consulting them despite their public media campaign and threats of retaliation.

Yet again President Mugabe showed that he is not going to be dictated to.

MDC’s response

Predictably, the opposition immediately expressed indignation. Prime Minister Tsvangirai’s spokesperson, Luke Tamborinyika, described  Charamba’s statements as “utter rubbish” and said “I don’t know which sewage Mr Charamba is fishing that position [out] from.”

An acrimonious war of words erupted, fuelled further when Mugabe cancelled a scheduled meeting with Tsvangirai for Monday 6 February 2012 – rumoured to be because he knew the Prime Minister would raise the issue of the unilateral re-appointment of the Police Commissioner and anger over a classified letter written to him by the Prime Minister that was then leaked to, and printed by, the pro-ZANU-PF Sunday Mail on 5 February 2012.

Amongst others, the letter concluded that if the situation does not improve it will signal the end of the coalition government and make an election inevitable.

It was obviously not his intention, but the political indoenas in ZANU-PF neatly turned Tsvangirai’s objections around and suggested that he actually agrees with the President on holding the next election this year.

ZANU-PF Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa said that Zimbabwe will hold elections under the present dispensation – not under rules set by a new constitution as demanded by the opposition in accordance with the GPA.

Tsvangirai’s spokesperson responded that the letter to President Mugabe was in no way calling for or agreeing to elections this year without broad electoral, media and other reforms, but merely a plea to the President to establish “an enabling environment for our people to exercise their right to choose their leaders freely and fairly”.

Dramatic turn

With confusion and verbal denunciations reaching a fever pitch, events took a dramatic turn on Wednesday 8 February 2012 when Arthur  Mutambara, former leader of the smaller MDC formation (he is at present embroiled in a legal battle with the current leader Welshman Ncube for party leadership), joined Morgan Tsvangirai for a meeting with President Mugabe.

After the meeting the two invited the media for a briefing at the Prime Minister’s residence where Mutambara made some surprising statements.  In addition to what seems to be some concessions by President Mugabe, Mutambara released a bombshell when he announced that an understanding was reached that Chihuri would serve as Police Commissioner but only in an acting capacity.

It was agreed that the Police Service Commission must be regularised to make recommendations of potential candidates to the President after which, in line with the Constitution, the President would then consult and agree with the Prime Minister on the next Commissioner General of Police.

He added that it was further agreed to take action against security service chiefs who undermine civilian authorities by making political statements.

These announcements were met with disbelief. It was almost incomprehensible that President Mugabe would compromise on such crucial issues.

Startling message

ZANU-PF reacted almost immediately and the message was startling: Mutambara and Tsvangirai had it all wrong, was the explanation given by George Charamba.

According to the presidential spokesperson, President Mugabe met with his coalition partners as required by the GPA and his decision stands. Police Commissioner Chihuri’s re-appointment is permanent as are those of all the other security heads.

For a fleeting moment it seemed as if progress was at long last possible but the Presidential spokesperson brought the euphoria to an abrupt end. Once again President Mugabe showed that anyone underestimates him, does so at his own peril. If this was a boxing match President Mugabe won this round convincingly and unanimously.

Like so many times in the past, Tsvangirai is again against the ropes. His support, although still strong by all accounts, is showing signs of strain and is becoming nervous.

If Tsvangirai still wants to deliver a knock out in the last round, which would be the elections, he and his helpers will have to come up soon with a successful strategy to counter the jabs of his crafty opponent.