Who is next on the “hit list”?

A recent article by Reuters posed the chilling question: Who among the seven longest serving African leaders will be deposed next? If there is indeed such a “hit list” for African statesmen the President of Equatorial Guinea is probably the one who should sleep  the lightest among the longest serving leaders.

Of the 10 longest serving leaders in Africa three have been removed in the last six months; Ben Ali of Tunisia after 23 years, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt ruled for 30 years and Libya’s Brother Leader the longest for 42 years.

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea (32), Eduardo dos Santos of Angola (32), Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe (31), Paul Biya of Cameroon (29) and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda (25), King Mswati III of Swaziland (24), Blaise Campore of Burkina Faso (24) are still in power but must be wondering whose turn is next.

Robert Mugabe and his much younger colleague in Swaziland, Mswati III, are probably the most vulnerable, especially the 87-year-old Zimbabwean leader.

Although they can still comfortably manipulate the affairs of state the warning lights are flickering for Ugandan president Museveni and Angola’s president dos Santos.

Sleep Light

It is President Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea who should be sleeping more lightly than the rest. Not because his country is on the brink of a popular uprising – for that his security forces are too efficient.

It is the decision by France and the United States  to confiscate some of the assets of the president’s playboy son and heir apparent, 40-year-old Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue also known as Teodorin, that should have the  dictator  worried.

President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, currently also chairman of the African Union, is by all accounts not very popular either domestically or internationally despite the fact that he recently received a red carpet and 21-gun salute when visiting South Africa.

The most important reason why President Nguema receives noticeable recognition is because his tiny country located in Africa’s armpit, is the third biggest oil producer in Africa.

Bloody coup d’état

Thirty-two years ago, in 1979, President Nguema came to power in a bloody coup d’état after executing his uncle. In the last rigged election in 2009 he was re-elected with 95% of the vote.

Treating the presidency as family property President Nguema plans constitutional changes allowing him to run for two more seven-year terms as well as creating the new post of vice-president.

His son Teodorin has already been named vice-president of the ruling party in a shameless move to assure a father-to-son succession.

Over the years President Nguema has built up a reputation as a brutal and cruel man and definitely not a statesman Africa can take pride in. It is said that with a fortune of allegedly US$ 65 billion he is the richest man in Africa – not a bad distinction if not for the fact that it is oil revenue belonging to the country and people of Equatorial Guinea which has found its way into his private bank account.

Equatorial Guinea's vast earnings from oil and gas should give its population of 600,000 people a theoretical income of US$37,000 a year each. However, few people have benefited from the oil riches and the country ranks near the bottom of the UN human development index.

Less than half the population has access to clean drinking water and 20%t of children die before the age of five. Sixty per cent of the nation’s citizens live on less than US$1 a day.

Pocketing most of his country’s oil revenue President Nguema once infamously declared, “There is no poverty in Equatorial Guinea. The people are used to living in a different way.”

Little wonder Transparency International places Equatorial Guinea at the top of its list of most corrupt states.

Tide might be turning

But now it seems as if the tide might be turning with plans put in motion to expose his flamboyant son, but with the president himself as the ultimate goal.

As Equatorial Guinea's minister of agriculture and forestry and his country's representative for UNESCO, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, receives an official salary of about US$7,000.

His opulent lifestyle does not correspond with such a moderate salary and he is also accused of plundering his nation's wealth.

The US government says it is seeking to recover Teodorin’s assets in the US worth more than US$100 million. This includes a Malibu mansion he paid US$35 million for in cash, a Gulfstream jet, yachts, cars and Michael Jackson memorabilia.

He was reportedly considering buying a US$300 million personal yacht, the cost of which surpasses both Equatorial Guinea’s health and education budget by a whopping three times.

The construction of the yacht has reportedly been cancelled.

The same Teodorin, on a visit to South Africa, according to reports, spend more than US$1 million over a weekend of indulgence.

The announcement by US lawmakers follows on the recent seizure by French authorities in Paris of 11 luxury cars worth millions including Bugatti’s, Ferraris and Maserati’s.

When announcing the investigation into Teodorin’s private fortune the US Assistant Attorney-General Lanny Breuer warned that, “We are sending the message loud and clear: the United States will not be a hiding place for the ill-gotten riches of the world's corrupt leaders."

Real reason

The decision by both the French and US governments to look into the corrupt affairs of one of the  world’s most notorious despots is to be commended but the timing is a bit suspect and nobody can be blamed for being  somewhat cynical. There is also the nagging suspicion that this might be another case of official US hypocrisy and double-standards.

One cannot but question the true motives of the US.

In 2006, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hailed President Nguema as a good friend despite repeated criticism of his human rights and civil liberties record by her own department. More recently President Barack Obama posed for an official photograph with the same man at a New York reception.

Is it possible that morals and ethics have suddenly become the guiding light in the way in  which Paris and Washington look at the world?

Highly unlikely – it has seldom troubled the French or the US in the past and the lacklustre manner in which political and big corporate corruption in both countries is tackled makes the hunt on Teodorin Nguema a highly hypocritical act.

Hopefully the same treatment will befall oil companies such as Exxon Mobile, Hess Corporation (formerly Amerada Hess) and all other US companies that have been identified in corrupt dealings with the Nguema regime, greasing the palms of one of the world’s worst dictators.

There must be a case for greedy companies to also be punished for dealing with corrupt politicians and, if Teodorin Nguema’s extravagance was so ostentatious and obviously based upon “extortion, misappropriation, embezzlement, or theft of public funds,” as is now alleged, then why did it take so long before a decision was taken to investigate or are there perhaps other reasons?

Another possibility

Indisputable proof that the ruling Nguema family obtained its wealth improperly at the expense of the people of Equatorial Guinea grants the US and the French a golden opportunity to promote their self-interest.

Investigating and seizing with so much zeal the ill-gotten assets of the man who is expected to take over from his father as Equatorial Guinea’s next president might in the future still prove to be a premeditated move – a warning that plans by the Nguema family to continue their total control in oil-rich Equatorial Guinea are not shared by everyone.

Calling the ruling family in Equatorial Guinea to order and justice might be the thin edge of the wedge – eroding the legitimacy of President Nguema and his family and providing a handy springboard  for their eventual removal when the time seems ripe.

Equatorial Guinea might still become an interesting scenario worthwhile watching.