It should be an eventful 2012 for Africa

One must be careful when attempting to make predictions about Africa, especially on the political front. But we know that 2012 will be a year of elections in Africa with no less than 24 presidential and parliamentary elections, or both scheduled. But as has become customary it is uncertain if all will take place and at the allotted date. This therefore has to remain a subjective but honest attempt, to highlight some possible events that might dominate the political front in Africa during 2012.

After the tumultuous events of 2011 next year’s elections in Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya will have far-reaching consequences not only for the immediate region but also for Africa and the Middle East.

Elections in Angola, Kenya, and Ghana are also crucial. All three countries are significant players in their respective regions with the importance of Angola enhanced by its role as the second biggest oil producer in Africa after Nigeria. Ghana is also on the brink of joining the ranks of oil producer in Africa.

Angola and Kenya carry the knowledge that they were scarred when their last elections ended in dispute and violence.

In Angola the collective memory goes back to 1992 when the election supposed to end years of conflict and war was suspended and the civil war resumed. Peaceful legislative elections were held in 2008 but 2012 will see the first presidential election since the aborted attempt in 1992.

Kenya is experiencing an uncomfortable political truce since controversial elections in 2007 and can ill afford a repeat.  For any attempt to bring a semblance of order to a volatile region it is imperative that Kenya gets its own house in order.

All eyes will also be on Zimbabwe to see whether the two main protagonists, President Mugabe and his Zanu-PF and the MDC-T under Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the smaller MDC-M faction can resolve their outstanding differences and create conditions conducive to holding  the long awaited elections before the end of 2012.

Political Instability

North Africa

Political instability in Africa is omnipresent and 2012 will be no different. Countries running the risk of experiencing unrest while thrashing out a new political dispensation in the aftermath of dramatic and radical change include Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. Algeria and Morocco largely escaped the political turbulence of their Arab neighbours but  they, especially Morocco, might experience some political disquiet.

West Africa

Of concern are signs that Nigeria might also be in for a rough ride in the coming year. Nigeria has shown over the years an uncannyability time and again to stop at the precipice and turn back but this is becoming more difficult with every new challenge. The tension caused by the political and religious   North/South divide is building up like a pressure cooker  and should it explode the ramifications will be felt throughout West Africa -- a region in itself not a model of peace and stability.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

The December 2011 elections in the DRC provided, as expected, enough irregularities and questions for the opposition to call foul.

Incumbent President Joseph Kabila won with 49 per cent of the popular vote to 32 per cent for veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi who deliberately tried to create suspicion when he insisted even before the final result was made public that he was the country's rightful leader and declared himself the winner.

The DRC is still fragile after a five-year civil war that killed millions and ended officially in 2003.

Failure to ease the current tension might see the DRC in 2012 degenerating once again into yet another devastating civil war preventing any chance to unlock the potential of a country endowed with natural riches second to none. Not only will it force two-thirds of a population of 72million to struggle on in dire poverty but will also have a debilitating impact on the Great Lakes region.

Zimbabwe

The political deadlock in Zimbabwe might also come to a head in 2012.

Despite strong undercurrents and a fierce succession battle Zanu-PF unanimously nominated the 87-year-old President Robert Mugabe as its presidential candidate. At the party’s Bulawayo conference in early December 2011 the feisty old leader came out guns blazing announcing that elections will take place as early as possible in 2012. It needs to be seen if  that will happen.

The SADC-sanctioned constitutional roadmap is still incomplete and the opposition parties, notwithstanding their own internal strife, are adamant that it be followed to the letter.

Political tension is deepening and the signs are ominous.

Swaziland

For the sake of tiny Swaziland it is imperative that an intransigent king and his cohorts take some vital decisions sooner rather than later and for once without putting their own interests first.

But, it might already be too late and 2012 might become the year the subjects of a bankrupt kingdom finally decide to draw a line in the sand and stand firm in the face of possible violent retribution if their demands are not met.

Kenya, Angola, Malawi and Uganda

In the year ahead political turbulence and protest is a real possibility in Kenya, Angola, Malawi and Uganda. Elections in Kenya and Angola will inevitably increase the political temperature but, alarmingly, issues similar to those that fuelled the protests that culminated in the eventful Arab Spring, are also recognisable in all these countries.

Resentment with the arrogance and self-righteousness expressed by a corrupt political elite have already led to open and public protest.Although unlikely to institute regime change,on-going public protest might usher in a more accommodating government response.

Horn of Africa

It is to be expected that instability in the Horn of Africa will top the African agenda in 2012.

Somalia and the attempts to simultaneously restore a semblance of normality,curb the influence of the radical Al Shabaab movement and combat off-shore piracy, will present a formidable challenge.

With Kenya sending troops into neighbouring Somalia after becoming fed-up with the lawlessness spilling over the border and a growing unease detectable in Ethiopia and Eritrea the table is set for an escalation in military activity. The African Union  and regional structures will have to act with a renewed responsibly and decisiveness to prevent a “Libya type scenario” developing. With close to 3000 US military personnel stationed in nearby Djibouti the chances of more direct US covert intervention and an escalation in drone warfare against selected targets in the region are almost certain.

To make matters worse there is a worrisome increase in armed activity and violence adjacent to where the new Republic of South Sudan is trying to find its feet.

To further exacerbate an already highly volatile state of affairs food experts are predicting food shortages and severe famine in the Horn of Africa.

North Africa

Expect the US and some of its European allies, notably France and Britain, to intensify the fight against Al  Qaeda, its supporters, and affiliated groups in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) and Boko Haram in Nigeria.

Experts acknowledge that the volatility and instability created in North Africa by the Arab Spring uprisings earlier in the year is providing a new breeding ground for potential recruits for terrorist groups.

What concerns military and security advisers in the West is that in adopting the same tactics as the pirates of Somalia, the terrorists in the Maghreb have also started abducting Westerners for ransom, and the proximity of North Africa to Europe for launching possible terror attacks.

The announcement by US President Obama that 100 US military specialists will join  -- in an advisory capacity -- the fight against Joseph Kony and his Lord’s Liberation Army (LRA) in an inhospitable area straddling Uganda, Sudan and the Central African Republic,was generally well received.

The outcome of this endeavour is significant. Success will bring reprieve to thousands and a peace that is long overdue.

In true tradition with the festive season it would be a fitting wish that Africa might find the courage, determination and commitment in 2012 to face all these challenges and find honest and lasting solutions to make the continent a better place for its entire people. One can but hope and pray!